Use of Plug-In Electric Vehicle Fleet Would Lower GHG Emissions

A new study by Charles River Associates found that widespread use of plug-in hybrid vehicles along with a carbon-pricing system would increase electricity demand and "cause short-term extensions to the lifespans of natural gas- and coal-fired power plants," but the drop in oil demand initiated by the use of the vehicles would cause a net drop in GHG emissions, Energy Washington Week reported today.

If the U.S. implemented a $30-per-ton carbon tax and increased it 5 percent a year starting in 2015, electric plug-in vehicles would comprise almost the entire fleet by 2050, the study predicted. A reduction of 5.1 percent a year in GHG emissions could be expected if the growth of plug-ins was constrained, said the study, compared to a 4.9-percent per year reduction if plug-in electric vehicle growth responds to a carbon price, said Charles River Associates. The study stated: "Although the electric sector emissions increase due to move [sic] fossil based generation under the [unconstrained PHEV] cases, we see that emissions from non-electric sources drop in particular from the use of motor gasoline. The drop in motor gasoline emissions is larger than the increase in emissions from electric sector."

The study, "Implication of the Choice of Technologies on Carbon Management Using an Integrated Modeling Approach: A Case for Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles," was unveiled at the Energy & Environment Research Center's Air Quality VII conference in Virginia last week.